Your portfolio closed at $11,211,882 today, down $13,472 (-0.12%). TSLA dragged the portfolio with a -$33,485 (-5.4%) decline, offsetting broad gains across value and mid-cap holdings. Your bond sleeve provided a small cushion. The 6-month trend remains concerning at -$1,036,433 (-12.3%). Sentiment: CAUTIOUS.
| Metric | Value | Change vs Yesterday | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio beta | 0.98 | unchanged | Normal |
| Annualized vol | 14.6% | unchanged | Normal |
| VaR (95%, 1-day) | -$163,200 | unchanged | Normal |
| Max drawdown (12mo) | -8.7% | unchanged | Normal |
| HHI concentration | 1,182 | -2 | Moderate |
| Cash % | 0.19% | unchanged | Low |
Correlation watch: IWF-QQQ remains at 0.97. Combined they represent 23.2% of the portfolio in effectively duplicate large-growth exposure. Consider consolidating.
TSLA risk note: With an embedded gain of +$509K (+673%), TSLA cannot be trimmed without ~$188K in federal tax. Monitor the position — any further decline from $360 reduces the tax problem but also the portfolio value.
The S&P 500 fell 0.15% in a mixed session. The Nasdaq lost 0.38%, weighed down by TSLA's 5.4% drop and broad consumer discretionary weakness. VIX at 19.5 reflects ongoing uncertainty around trade policy. Value and mid-cap names outperformed growth. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.22%, supporting bond prices.
Upcoming for your holdings: MSFT reports earnings April 22. As your 3rd-largest equity position (6.5% direct + additional exposure via QQQ and IWF, ~11% effective), this is a significant event.
Monitor TSLA after -5.4% drop — review thesis and embedded gain strategy
Down to $361 with +$509K embedded gain (+673%). Selling triggers ~$188K federal tax. Today's decline is the largest single-day dollar loss (-$33K) in recent weeks.
Evaluate MSFT earnings risk (reports Apr 22)
6.5% direct + ~4.5% through ETFs = ~11% effective exposure. Potential 5-8% move on earnings.
Harvest AGG (-$268) and VHT (-$89) losses, replace with SCHZ and VHT-equivalent
Combined estimated tax savings: ~$132 at 37% bracket. Minimal portfolio impact. No wash sale concern.
Plan to increase MDIJX when cash available
International at 8.4% vs 15% target. $75K into MDIJX would bring to ~9.1%. Requires additional cash beyond the $20.9K available.
Track IWF/QQQ consolidation opportunity
0.97 correlation = effectively duplicate exposure (23.2% combined). Consolidating simplifies tax-lot management. Tax cost of selling QQQ: ~$182K.
TSLA support at $340
After -5.4% drop to $361, next support is ~$340. Below that, reassess entire position thesis.
VIX above 25
Currently 19.5 and elevated. Move above 25 would significantly increase portfolio VaR. Monitor for hedging needs.
MSFT earnings Apr 22
~11% effective exposure. Potential 5-8% move. Review position size ahead of report.
Fed meeting May 6-7
Rate decision could impact growth/value rotation and bond prices.
6-month drawdown trajectory
Portfolio down -$1.04M (-12.3%) over 6 months. Monitor for continued deterioration.
Review SPSB duration — Position unchanged. Still relevant.
pendingConsider adding international — Not yet acted on. Cash remains low.
pendingThis analysis is for informational purposes only. Consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.